Your 2019–2021 vintage has a buyer problem, not a markup problem.

ChronoCurve ranks a healthcare venture portfolio by realizable value and by route, and reports what the preference stack actually leaves the fund at each outcome.

Book a portfolio triage Run the six-question diagnostic first

Fixed fee
One partner signature
Credited against a platform agreement

Preference-stack waterfall deterministic

Last round post-money$420.0MHeld at$38.0MRouteStrategic sale

Realistic strategic bid (P50) $180.0M

Preference stack ahead of the fund $145.2M

What the fund actually receives $12.4M

Held at $38.0M. Receives $12.4M at a realistic bid. The waterfall, not the headline valuation, determines the distribution.

Illustrative output shape. Every figure ships with its calculation trail.

What the 2026 market is telling you

52%

of buyout-backed companies have been held four years or longer — up from 43% in 2024

16,000+

companies globally sitting in that four-plus-year backlog

6.6 yrs

average holding period across buyout-backed inventory

19%

of 2021 acquisitions sold by 2025, against a roughly 30%-by-year-four historical norm

Source: McKinsey & Company, Global Private Markets Report 2026, pp. 3, 14.