Venture capital · Exit & liquidity intelligence
Your 2019–2021 vintage has a buyer problem, not a markup problem.
ChronoCurve ranks a healthcare venture portfolio by realizable value and by route, and reports what the preference stack actually leaves the fund at each outcome.
- Fixed fee
- One partner signature
- Credited against a platform agreement
Preference-stack waterfall
Illustrative output shape- Last round post-money
- $420.0M
- Held at
- $38.0M
- Route
- Strategic sale
Held at $38.0M. Receives $12.4M at a realistic bid. The waterfall, not the headline valuation, determines the distribution.
Why now
The exit window did not reopen.
Sources: PitchBook–NVCA Venture Monitor, Q2 2026 · NVCA 2026 Yearbook · Carta VC Fund Performance, June 2026.
The engagement
Portfolio Liquidity Triage
Take ten to twenty-five positions from your 2019–2021 vintages and rank them by realizable value and route.
- Triangulated valuation range per position, with the comparable set disclosed
- P10 / P50 / P90 outcomes and downside conditional value at risk
- Preference-stack waterfall showing what the fund receives at each exit value
- Route recommendation per position, ranked across the portfolio
- Reserve review: which allocations are held against companies unlikely to raise again
- A memo written for a partner meeting and reusable in an LP update
Fixed fee, credited in full against a platform agreement. Every figure ships with its calculation trail.
Routes considered
Every position gets a route, not a rating.
- Strategic saleCorporate buyer with synergy capacity and a different cost of capital.
- Direct-share secondaryLiquidity at a price set by a secondary buyer, not by the last round.
- RecapitalizationResetting the stack so new capital can price the risk it is taking.
- Down-round listingA public path taken at an honest number rather than a deferred one.
- Wind-down or priced holdReleasing reserves and closing the position, or holding with the annual cost stated explicitly.
Fair objections
What partners ask first.
“We have bankers for valuation.”
Bankers price one asset once you have already decided to sell it. This ranks twenty assets to decide which ones to sell, and it costs a fraction of a banker week. The two are sequential, not competing.
“We do not trust AI-generated numbers.”
Neither do we. The math runs in a deterministic package with source-tier provenance gating on every input, and the language model only writes the explanation. Ask for the calculation trail in the first meeting — it is the point of the product, not an appendix to it.
“Our marks are set by the valuation committee.”
This does not replace your marks. It gives the committee an independent triangulation to test them against — which matters when roughly 30% of LPs already read continuation-vehicle assets as distressed or challenged.
“We are not a healthcare specialist.”
Then start with the healthcare assets you do hold. Healthcare led all sectors in 2025 buyout value growth, so it is likely a disproportionate share of both your inventory and your uncertainty.
Next step
Start with your three hardest positions.
A triage begins with a data handoff, not a discovery call. Bring the cap tables and the marks; the first meeting is about the calculation trail.
- Fixed fee
- One partner signature
- Credited against a platform agreement
Running a venture portfolio instead?
See the Backlog Triage for private equity →