Your 2019–2021 vintage is a liquidity problem, not a valuation problem.
ChronoCurve ranks a healthcare-heavy sponsor portfolio by realizable value and route — sell, hold and invest, or continuation vehicle — with a backsolve of what the next buyer can actually afford to pay at today’s credit terms. The math is computed deterministically, and every input traces to its source.
What the 2026 market is telling you
Four conditions that turn a hold decision into arithmetic
Every figure below is published market evidence, cited to its page. None of it is a ChronoProof claim.
You paid a record price with less leverage behind it
Median buyout entry multiples reached 11.8× EBITDA in 2025, a record, while debt fell to 37% of the entry multiple from 44% in 2016. Leverage and multiple expansion together produced 59% of returns on 2010–22 deals — a source now largely spent. The question that follows is who pays that multiple again, and out of whose balance sheet.
Exit value recovered; exit count did not
Exit value rose 41% to $1.3 trillion while exit count fell 15%. The median PE-backed company now exits about 0.3 turns above its held mark, but “A”-grade assets clear at roughly 1.6 turns of EBITDA higher. The spread between A-grade and everything else is the whole decision.
DPI is the first question in the room
54% of LPs rank DPI critical or most critical, tied with MOIC behind IRR. Distributions fell to roughly 6% of AUM against a 14% ten-year average, and delayed exits now rank among the top three LP concerns at 70%. Paper marks are no longer accepted as evidence of a realization.
A CV mark you cannot defend is a trust problem
GP-led secondary volume reached $115 billion, and average buyout CV pricing fell 200 basis points to 92% of NAV. Roughly 30% of LPs already read assets in continuation vehicles as distressed or challenged. An independent triangulation is a governance document, not a software feature.
What ChronoCurve computes
Five outputs per asset, each one traceable
ChronoCurve is built for the sponsor question that sits underneath a hold decision: is this platform A-grade to the next buyer, and if not, what is the cheapest path to becoming so — or should the fund stop spending on it?
Valuation triangulation
DCF, precedent transactions, and benchmarking against comparable deals blended through a DerSimonian–Laird random-effects model, so dispersion across comparable sets is carried into the range rather than averaged away.
Exit path simulation
Gaussian path simulation returning P10 / P50 / P90 exit outcomes with conditional value at risk on the downside tail — the shape of the distribution, not a single point estimate an IC can argue with.
Sponsor affordability backsolve
An LBO backsolve of what a financial buyer can pay for the platform at current credit terms, given debt service and covenant headroom. This is the number that decides whether your held mark is reachable.
Route recommendation per asset
Sell now, hold and invest, or move into a continuation vehicle — ranked across the portfolio rather than argued one platform at a time, with gross and net labelled on every multiple.
Computed cost of delay
What another quarter of hold costs in IRR terms for a specific asset. Extended holds erode returns through time decay; this turns “we will look at it next quarter” into a figure.
Committee-ready memo
Each figure rendered with its denominator, its scenario label, and its source tier, so the output survives the reading it will actually get — an investment committee, a valuation committee, or an LP update on DPI.
The AI explains the reasoning. It never invents the math.
Numbers come from a deterministic calculation package with source-tier provenance gating on every input; the language model is restricted to explaining the result. Regulatory conclusions carry human-in-the-loop review. Only 6% of GPs currently see AI delivering high impact in their own investment processes, and underwriting has shifted toward verifiable, asset-level evidence. The relevant question in this segment is not whether the model is good — it is whether the output can go in an IC memo. That is what the calculation trail is for.
Disposition routes
An exit is a choice between five routes, priced separately
Two ways to start
Both are fixed-scope, signed by one partner, and run on assets you already own
No live process is required to start. The lead engagement runs against the portfolio already on your books.
Backlog Triage
Ten to twenty-five healthcare portfolio companies held four years or longer, ranked by exit readiness and realizable route.
- Exit-readiness ranking across the cohort
- Per-asset valuation triangulation with dispersion carried through
- P10 / P50 / P90 exit paths with downside CVaR
- Sponsor affordability backsolve at current credit terms
- Recommended route per asset: sell, hold and invest, or continuation vehicle
- Computed cost of delay per quarter of continued hold
Entry Discipline Sprint
One live healthcare target, including carve-outs and take-privates, where the regulatory load is heaviest and a manual research week is most painful.
- Regulatory, reimbursement, clinical, and commercial signal brief
- Asset-quality read against verifiable moats, data advantages, embedded workflows, and execution capability
- SaMD classification, PCCP status, and the coding–coverage–payment sequence where relevant
- ChronoCurve exit-multiple sanity check on the proposed entry price
- Every input traceable to its primary source
Who this is built for
Healthcare-specialist mid-market sponsors, first
Healthcare led all sectors in 2025 buyout deal value growth at +51%, and at over $500 million it grew 173%. Specialist buyout funds also out-earned generalists across 2010–22 vintages — 17% pooled IRR against 13% — deriving 43% of equity value from margin expansion rather than multiple expansion. This page is written for that fund.
| Persona | The pressure they are under | What ChronoCurve puts in their hands |
|---|---|---|
| Operating partner / head of value creation | Value creation is back-loaded — for deals exited since 2019, 6% of total ending EBITDA margin is generated in the final holding year and 4% in the year before, against roughly 1% per year earlier in the hold. | A ranked view of where operational spend still earns its return, and where it does not, four years before a sale process rather than twelve months out. |
| Managing partner / CIO | Older vintages are dragging the fund: 2015–17 vintages averaged roughly 2.3% IRR against 14.6% for 2022–24, with time decay compounding the gap. | A computed cost of delay per asset, so the hold-versus-sell debate is settled with arithmetic instead of conviction. |
| CFO / head of investor relations | DPI is critical for 54% of LPs, and roughly 30% of LPs read continuation-vehicle assets as distressed or challenged. | An independent triangulation the valuation committee can test its marks against, and a defensible basis for the next LP update. |
| Partner / head of healthcare | Record 11.8× entry multiples against a thin supply of resilient assets, with deployment pressure rising as more than 40% of dry powder has sat for two years or longer. | An exit-multiple sanity check on the entry price, run before signing rather than discovered at exit. |
How many healthcare assets do you hold that were acquired in 2021 or earlier?
The backlog is 52% of buyout-backed inventory. Yours has a number.What is the oldest platform in the portfolio, and what has been the stated reason for holding it?
The stated reason and the underwritten reason are often not the same.Which assets are you confident are “A”-grade to the next buyer, and how do you know?
A-grade assets exit roughly 1.6 turns of EBITDA higher. Below that, the expectation gap persists.Have you evaluated a continuation vehicle in the past twelve months, and what did pricing come back at?
Average buyout CV pricing has fallen to about 92% of NAV.What did your last LP meeting ask about DPI?
Distributions are near their lowest recorded share of AUM.Who owns exit readiness internally, and when does it start relative to a sale process?
Preparation starting twelve to eighteen months out is preparation starting late.Four minutes, six questions
Questions worth asking your own portfolio first
These are the questions a triage answers with numbers. Answer them in the concierge and the session returns your portfolio’s position against the published benchmarks — the 52% four-plus-year share, the 6.6-year average hold, and the A-grade exit spread.
Reasonable objections
The four we hear most, answered plainly
Bankers price one asset once you have already decided to sell it. This ranks twenty assets to decide which ones to sell, and it costs a fraction of a banker week. The two are sequential, not competing.
Neither do we. The math runs in a deterministic package with source-tier provenance gating on every input, and the language model only writes the explanation. Ask for the calculation trail in the first meeting — it is the point of the product, not an appendix to it.
This does not replace your marks. It gives the committee an independent triangulation to test them against — which matters when roughly 30% of LPs already read continuation-vehicle assets as distressed or challenged.
Then start with the healthcare assets you do hold. Healthcare led all sectors in 2025 buyout value growth, so it is likely a disproportionate share of both your inventory and your uncertainty.
ChronoCurve for private equity
Move from “we think it’s time” to “here’s why — right now.”
A quantified exit path costs less than borrowing against the portfolio. Start with your oldest three healthcare platforms.
ChronoCurve produces analysis to support investment and valuation judgment. It does not replace a fund’s valuation policy, an independent valuation opinion, or the work of a financial adviser. Market figures on this page are drawn from published third-party research, cited below, and are presented as market evidence only — no endorsement, validation, or affiliation is implied.
Secondary-market volume figures reported by McKinsey are credited to Jefferies, Global Secondary Market Review, January 2026. Product terminology definitions follow the FDA Software as a Medical Device and predetermined change control plan guidance.